When Lady Gaga hit the red carpet at TIFF, her star was indisputably born. Or reborn. Re-birthed in a new artistic medium, let’s say. Can we stop debating whether or not Lady Gaga is a first-time actress? First-time leading lady in a feature film, sure. How soon we forget, that a mere 3 years ago she was receiving a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Miniseries for her role in American Horror Story. Maybe we let that slide into the crevices of our consciousness because she went by the name Stefani Germanotta for that honour.

And she’s achieved countless awards for her music and music videos, etc etc etc. We can move past this pop culture cogitation because at TIFF in September of 2018, she walked the carpet as a star with a brand new shine. She was almost starstruck by her own persona - somehow a blend of every female icon from previous A Star is Born iterations. She was a woman undoubtedly crossing the Rubicon and not for a second looking back on the road to the Oscars.

That was September. Some would say the perfect time to start the rise. But if you’ve studied the “strategy” in as much depth as I shamelessly have, you also know that the Festival circuit is like when nominees announce they are running for President. The Golden Globes, then, are the Primaries. The night of the Oscars is Election night. There is a blueprint, a grand design even, for winning on Election night in Hollywood. It starts at the Festivals, that’s where the strategy begins to reveal itself. Then you need to do the work - that means going door to door with your platform, showing up for absolutely everything, repeating your message over and over, and gaining enough ground to get the popular vote. While we all know the popular vote sometimes doesn’t mean shit (sorry Hillary, again.) it often tilts the ballot.

What was the Gaga story? You’ve heard it about 100 times. But it just takes that 1 time…

Where did it go wrong? C’mon, admit it. At the outset we ate up her story mirthfully. The story of a girl who has always wanted to be accepted as an actress. The story of someone who just needed a shot. The story of a budding actress meeting a budding musician and director. The story of the beautiful art they made together.

I stand by the art. The film is as good a love story as any I’ve seen in the past decade or two. It’s also one of the grittier narratives tackling addiction, loss and its silent yet excruciating affect on those we love. Her acting is beyond (perhaps) what we expected, the soundtrack is unrivaled - maybe even since The Bodyguard.

So then, why won’t it win on Hollywood’s biggest night? Listen, The Oscars hasn’t doled out any honours yet, and I’m sure the Gaga/Cooper camp isn’t giving up until Best Picture has been read. But if you read the tea leaves, and if their track record at the most important milestones before The Oscars is any indication (and nine times out of ten it is) A Star is Born will likely walk away with the equivalent of a Grammy for Best Song. Shallow is almost undeniably the best song of the year (in any industry).

Do you want to know what I think? Well here goes: Hollywood is not the same as the music industry, therefore the strategy cannot be the same. Once in a blue, very blue moon do we see Hollywood embrace a first -timer, or someone who hasn’t (in their eyes) “done the work”. Remember how long they made Denzel wait, or on the flip side, how many times Meryl has won? Oscar voters are like the CEO that hasn’t noticed you for a decade, then you save the company’s ass in an all-important presentation and they can’t stop singing your praises. You have to do a million little things right over the course of years to be noticed and considered worthy of their highest honour. Sometimes, they realize they passed on great work and give an “oops we fucked up” award in a year that an actor/actress wasn’t as strong (ahem, Leo). But rarely do they flatter a first-timer with such a distinction. You know who loves breakthrough performances? The music industry. They almost prefer to award newcomers that had phenomenal years, over the ho-hum consistent artists.

Gaga showed her cards. She’s a musician through and through. She has lived, thrived and been accepted in that world for too long; it’s just different in Tinsel Town. If she doesn’t win Best Actress and Glenn Close does - everyone in the room will nod and applaud with fervid assent. If Gaga wins Best Actress over the journey (wo)man Ms. Close, there will be an awkward, almost offensive pause before a polite applause. It won’t be because they think Gaga’s performance was undeserving, rather, because it would be bucking a longstanding modus operandus for the Academy Awards. Akin, to say, if your grandfather up and decided one day to get rid of his 40 year old Lazy Boy. You aren’t unhappy about this decision, but you wonder if there’s something unsettling you should consider about this sudden change. Her acceptance speech would ring shallow (yes, pun intended) because she hasn’t been in the proverbial trenches for more than a year.

“You like me! You really like me!” is already taken, although it would have been apropos. Gaga was hoping Hollywood would embrace a new star, but she didn’t realize that she would be burning in a totally different stratosphere.